Israel and Iran – Aug 2012

Call Israel’s Bluff
by Ivan Eland
Aug 24, 2012

Israel’s threat to attack Iran is a bluff, because Israeli officials have to know that their earth-penetrating bunker-busting weapons would be ineffective in reaching all of the hardened, deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians have learned from past Israeli attacks from the air on above-ground Iraqi and Syrian nuclear facilities (in 1981 and 2007, respectively). Such an Israeli attack on Iran would not eliminate the Iranian nuclear program but would likely cause the Iranians to decide to actually produce a weapon (which U.S. intelligence says they have not yet done) and to attempt to rapidly realize that goal. (After Israel’s attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor, Saddam Hussein accelerated efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon.)

Barak’s Blunder
The Israeli defense minister misrepresents U.S. intelligence to bolster the case for war.
By PHILIP GIRALDI • August 17, 2012

Bibi’s Game: Nuclear Blackmail?
An Israeli strike against Iran is bound to go nuclear
by Justin Raimondo, August 20, 2012

It makes sense technically, because Israel’s threat to launch a solo attack is hollow otherwise. Iran’s alleged nuclear facilities are so well dispersed, and, in the case of the Fordow installation, so well fortified as to represent an insuperable challenge to Israel’s military capabilities. A first strike would simply not take them out, and the war to follow would last far longer than the mere thirty-day IDF blitzkrieg imagined by some Israeli officials. What would take them out, however – and possibly threaten the very existence of the Iranian regime – would be a few well-targeted nuclear bombs.

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